|
Welcome to the Advance Theory section.
If you've been betting a while - and breaking even - or even making a minor
profit - then this page might help take you to the next stage. This section
does not contain "sure-win systems" - but the principles needed to win and
be a successful punter. Many strategies have been collected, modified and
published on this page to help you beat your bookie. Some Mathematic needed
for the strategy.
Pre-Advance Theory
The suggestions here assume that you already do the following things :
· Have access to football statistics and team form
· Follow at least one football league closely
· Keep a betting log of all bets - with details for a least 50 bets
Home and Away Performance
Statistic shows about half of all games end in home wins - another quarter
end in draws - and the rest are away wins. This is true across nearly all
professional leagues. Home advantage is real.
A common method of forecasting is to look at the previous match results
during the current season - and perhaps last season too - in order to
estimate chances of a result.
If you did this for the 2004-05 English Premier League then you'd see some
eye opening results:
· Champions Chelsea still only won 73% of home games (14/19)
· Bottom placed Southampton only lost 68% of away games (13/19)
· Only the top 5 sides won more than half their home games
· Middle to Lower sides often draw as many games as any other result
By cross referencing the "home form" of the hosts with the "away form" of
the visiting team we can calculate a rough guide to the game - for example :
· Assume a match between two sides
· Host home form is 7-2-1 and visitors away form is 1-3-6
What would the raw chance of a result be?
ANSWER
HOME = 7 + 6 = 13 of 20 total games = 65%
DRAW = 2 + 3 = 5 of 20 totals games = 25%
AWAY = 1 + 1 = 2 or 20 total games = 10%
So fair prices might be 1.53 - 4.00 -10.00
Another popular method looks at recent form rather than season long form.
The idea is that a team that's been winning recently builds confidence and
perhaps has also recovered from injury woes ... while a losing side lacks
the fight required to get a result.
This is somewhat true - but other patterns emerge - especially from
mid-table sides who by definition are a bit inconsistent. So if a average
side is on a good or bad run then it is no surprise (to me at least) to see
them suddenly turn it around.
Derby
Game
Another complicating factor is the local derby game. Matches between fierce
rivals usually are hard fought affairs simply because both sets of fans
demand the best from their players against "the enemy". Arsenal vs Spurs
games are always tight, fiery affairs no matter what the recent form ...
Generally the effect is that the natural home advantage is actually negated
to a large degree. I might not make sense but it's true - the visiting team
is motivated and seems to overcome a hostile crowd easier if it's a natural
'rival'.
Note that in recent years with Television and nationwide media coverage it
seems that "rivals" are no longer restricted to local sides so matches like
Arsenal v Man Utd and Real Madrid v Barcelona also take on
this dimension.
|
