|
For the final step, multiply the
bookmaker's price for each of the three outcomes by the payoutshare. This
removes the part of the price, which is the bookmaker's profit, and leaves
only the pure probability element of the price.
The probabilities are thus
calculated like this:
Probability[1] = (1/odds[1]) x
Payout share
Probability[X] = (1/odds[X]) x Payout share
Probability[2] = (1/odds[2]) x Payout share
|
Example |
|
Probability[1 - Brazil]: |
0.7142 x
84.67% |
= 60.47%
|
|
Probability[X - Draw]: |
0.2667 x
84.67% |
= 22.58%
|
|
Probability[2 - England]: |
0.2 x 84.67% |
= 16.93%
|
| Sum |
rounded to 100.00% |
The calculations above show how to
obtain the probabilities intrinsic in the odds of the bookmaker. The
bookmaker's probabilities may of course not be correct estimates. When you
judge the probabilities to be different, is when you have a good opportunity
to make money on a bet.
|
