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How does
bookmaker determine the odds value for "Home team", "Draw match" and "Away
team" ?
A common method of forecasting is to look at the previous match results
during the current season - and perhaps last season too - in order to
estimate chances of a result.
If you did this for the 2004-05 English Premier League then you'd see some
eye opening results:
· Champions Chelsea still only won 73% of home games (14/19)
· Bottom placed Southampton only lost 68% of away games (13/19)
· Only the top 5 sides won more than half their home games
· Middle to Lower sides often draw as many games as any other result
By cross referencing the "home form" of the hosts with the "away form" of
the visiting team we can calculate a rough guide to the game - for example :
· Assume a match between two sides
· Host home form is 7-2-1 and visitors away form is 1-3-6
Derives from above data:
|
HOME |
DRAW
|
AWAY
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= 7 + 6
= 13 of 20 total games
= 65%
** Odds = 100/65 = 1.53 |
= 2 + 3
= 5 of 20 totals games
= 25%
** Odds = 100/25 = 4.00 |
= 1 + 1
= 2 or 20 total games
= 10%
** Odds = 100/10 = 10.00 |
So fair prices might be
1.53 - 4.00
-10.00
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