Taking the odds from last
lesson, 1.53 - 4.00 - 10.00
is the maximum odds any
sports bookies will set.
However to be realistic, we
have to take into account
that sports bookies will
take profit into account and
lower the odds.
For example, we have odds 1.50 - 3.80 - 9.50.
First we need to determine
the payout share,
formula = 100/odd,
Take a look at the
bookies profit indicator
above, 103.51 tells us
that this sports bookie
make $3.51 for every $100
stake they received. Normally
it will be
approximately $3.00 - $7.00.
Finally, we can calculate
the winning probability of
each outcome, formula =
Payout share / Profit
Indicator
Home = 66.67/103.51 =
64.41%
Draw = 26.32/103.51 =
25.42%
Away = 10.53/103.51 =
10.17%
Derive from above
calculation, now we
understand that the home
team stands better chance of
winning at 64.41% compare to
draw at 25.42% and away
winning at
10.17%.
Note : The lower number is
better as the bookie takes
lower profit and offer
higher odds for your
winning.
